Donald Trump is set to announce a decision on the Iran nuclear deal at the White House, in what could mark the most significant foreign policy move of his presidency.
Trump tweeted that he will make his announcement on Tuesday, before the 12 May deadline by which he has to decide whether to renew the waivers on US sanctions against Iran.
Trump is expected to tear up the deal, which was negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama in 2015, but diplomats are waiting to see how quickly and widely the president plans to reimpose sanctions that would affect European firms trading with Iran. European countries are hoping to stick with the deal, even if the US pulls out, but there are doubts about whether this is a viable option.
There are 100-day dispute mechanisms inside the deal that could be invoked to prevent its immediate collapse.
A succession of European leaders including the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the British foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, have flown to Washington in recent weeks to warn that tearing up the deal with no alternative strategy on how to contain Iran’s nuclear programme risks undermining diplomacy and strengthening hardliners inside Tehran.
But Trump is now surrounded by opponents of the 2015 deal including John Bolton, his new national security adviser, and Mike Pompeo, the new US secretary of state.
“It is possible that we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this,” Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, said at a conference ahead of Trump’s announcement, which is expected at 2pm ET (7pm BST) on Tuesday.
In an apparent nod to Europe, Rouhani also stressed Iran wants to keep “working with the world and constructive engagement with the world”.
The deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action (JCPOA), requires Iran to give up its stock of 20% enriched uranium, halt production and limit research of new nuclear centrifuges and allow extensive international inspections of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Authority.
EU and US diplomats had staged private talks over the possibility of widening the deal to cover Iran’s nuclear ballistic missile programme and wider interventions in the Middle East, but these appear to have stalled with the arrival of Bolton and Pompeo.
Robert Malley, the former lead White House negotiator on the Iran agreement under Obama, said he expected Trump to withdraw from the deal.
“It seems based on everything I am hearing from the Europeans and from people here, that President Trump wants to walk out of the deal, not because he’s not satisfied with its substance, but because it’s an Obama legacy,” said Malley.
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia, for different reasons, have lobbied hard against the deal, pinpointing a sunset clause that allows Iran to restart nuclear enrichment once the deal ends in 2025.
Before Trump’s announcement on Tuesday, the head of the Iranian central bank said a US withdrawal would have no impact on the country’s economy. But Iran’s rial traded near record lows against the dollar in the free market as Iranians tried to buy hard currency, fearing economic turmoil if Trump announces a withdrawal.
The dollar was selling for 65,000 rials, according to foreign exchange websites which track the free market. At the end of last month the rial was at about 57,500 to the dollar and 42,890 at the end of last year.
Iran also insisted that it will be able to continue as a major oil exporter, but its potential travails have helped to push oil prices higher.
Appealing to the Europeans on Monday, Rouhani said Iran will remain in the JCPOA, adding: “Today we are telling the world that if you are worried about Iran’s access to nuclear bomb, we have completely allayed this concern in the JCPOA, and the deal ensures that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons.”
Tehran is hoping European nations can defy US sanctions and retain trade and investment links with the Islamic Republic. But European banks, especially those with any links to the US, have been wary of facilitating trading with Iran, even under the current sanctions regime.
Paris will continue to push for a broader deal, “whether the United States participates or not”, France’s defence minister said on Tuesday.
“This agreement is not the best one in the world,” Florence Parly told RTL radio. “But without being perfect, it still has its virtues … and they [the Iranians] are respecting it,” she said.
On Monday the British foreign secretary used an appearance on Fox & Friends to appeal to Trump not to withdraw from the pact.
“The president is right to see flaws in [the deal] and he set a very reasonable challenge to the world,” said Johnson, arguing that the US should work with France, Germany, the UK and others to improve the deal.
In the UK, Labour said Johnson’s failure to have a face-to-face meeting with the president reflected the Foreign Office’s lack of influence.
“I think that is a byproduct of a long and unnecessary indulgence of Donald Trump that has been happening for too long by this government,” the shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Tuesday. “I think that if you allow the new president to believe that that sort of behaviour is normal then I think that your influence later is less.”
Johnson was the first foreign affairs minister to meet Pompeo.
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